Summary.
In this article, authors explore whether public transport can address significant social issues such as crime, poverty, and poor health in New South Wales (NSW). It examines the correlation between public transport accessibility and social outcomes, using recent data from NSW. The analysis reveals that areas with better public transport access have lower crime rates and improved employment opportunities. The article also presents scenario modelling of potential solutions, including tax incentives for businesses, additional bus services, and pricing mechanisms to discourage car use. These solutions demonstrate that integrated land use and transport planning can yield significant social benefits, improving accessibility and overall social outcomes in underserved areas of NSW.
Additionally, it highlights a relevant and practical use case for AI in analysing and optimising public transport systems to address social challenges.
Introduction.
With a rising population and short supply of housing, more land is being released across New South Wales for residential development. At the same time, the state is dealing with systemic transport and social challenges arising from increased cost of living and the need for more integrated land use and transport planning.
Numerous studies indicate that improved access to public transport results in better health outcomes as well as increased social inclusion, more employment options, reduced crime, and a more productive population. So, if public transport can significantly address social problems, why do we see people in parts of Sydney and New South Wales living in “public transport deserts”, that is, areas which have poor access to public transport?
Using the latest data, we sought to understand and quantify the benefits associated with improved health, lower crime rates, and more productive population resulting from improved transport and land use planning practices and offer practical solutions that could help improve outcomes for communities across NSW.
Analysing New South Wales transport and crime data.
We analysed the New South Wales (NSW) crime data and public transport accessibility data, grouped by population size of Local Government Areas (LGAs), to examine the relationship between the datasets. The crime data are sourced from the NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research (BOSCAR) for 2023. The accessibility data is based on the 2023 General
Transit Feed Specification (GTFS). The population and employment data are based on the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) 2021 Census.
What the data show?
The results show a correlation between the percentage of jobs accessible by public transport within 1 hour and the percentage of crime committed in NSW. The results suggest that LGAs with lower public transport accessibility to jobs have a higher number of reported crime incidents than the LGAs with higher job accessibility by public transport.
The most job-accessible LGA’s are concentrated in the area east of Parramatta, south of the Hawkesbury River, and north of Botany Bay.
By contrast, a large proportion of Sydneysiders live in western Sydney, where access to employment is more limited.
The public transport deserts are scattered around Sydney suburbs. Those include parts of suburbs such as Cobbitty, Grasmere, Oran Park, and Minto. These suburbs have at most one bus per hour to the nearest train station for a working-age population of around 5,000 people.
Car trips to work from Cobbitty are generally local and are within half an hour’s drive.
Conversely, the public transport trips to work from Cobbitty are long distance, mostly to central Sydney, and take over 2 hours each way.
Scenario modelling of solutions.
We modelled hypothetical scenarios to improve accessibility in public transport deserts, which assumed the following:
– Service and retail businesses would receive a 5% tax incentive to set up in public transport deserts, to enable access for locals to their nearest shop, laundromat, or cafe by foot.
– Provision of additional 1.5 million bus service kilometres to connect public transport deserts with direct and frequent services to places of interest, employment centres, and transport hubs.
– Application of pricing mechanisms such as parking fees to discourage driving to areas well served by public transport.
We examined the thresholds at which the model would be break-even in terms of recouping the cost of the 5% tax incentive to local businesses and provision of an additional 1.5 million bus service kilometres, only based on social benefits (increased productivity, improved health, and reduced crime) and ignoring travel time, decongestion, environmental benefits as well as farebox and parking revenue.
Based on these assumptions, our modelling showed that the social benefits alone would outweigh the costs if the new measures resulted in the following:
– 200 more people finding employment or access higher paid jobs compared to the one they currently have,
– 10 fewer people getting hospitalised due to a more active lifestyle, and
– 1 fewer crimes committed due to access to more employment opportunities.
Conclusion.
Integrated land use and transport planning brings social benefits in the form of reduced cost of crime, reduced cost of healthcare, and increased productivity. The solutions we modelled, including tax incentives for businesses, additional direct and regular public transport services, and car use pricing mechanisms, showed a potential to improve accessibility and social outcomes in underserved areas of NSW
The author, Tym Pieglowski is the Director at Emuride, leading a specialist advisory and tech company providing solutions through data analytics, modelling, and digital product development.
Additionally, Tym served as a President of the Polish Australian Business Forum (PABF) from Sep 2022 – May 2024.
He is passionate about creating simple solutions to complex problems and advises both public and private sector clients on transport infrastructure solutions.
You can contact the author at:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/tym-pieglowski-27500b24
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